Research: Decentralized AI Overview (2024)
Performance, Investments, and Decentralized Growth
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We are experimenting with a new format.
For paid subscribers, we are building out a research library of our most important analyses. Below you can download the presentation itself. Further down, we highlight each slide as an image and provide a summary.
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Lex
Summary & Presentation
This 35 page report was prepared in Q4 2024 for Generative Ventures, which retains all rights to the materials. Key points:
AI Performance Milestones: By 2023, AI surpassed human performance in complex tasks like multitask language understanding and competition-level mathematics, with GPT-4 achieving a perfect score in SAT Math and 94.8% in MATH-500. Advancements in visual reasoning, language comprehension, and professional benchmarks highlight the accelerating capabilities of AI systems.
Venture Capital and Big Tech Investments: AI startups received $125B in venture capital by 2021, with 71% of funding focused on foundational models. Big Tech’s quarterly capital spending on AI infrastructure grew from $20B in 2020 to $52.9B by 2024, underscoring a shift toward long-term scaling.
Developer and Ecosystem Growth: AI-related GitHub projects tripled from 20,000 in 2020 to 60,000 by 2023, and domain registrations surpassed 353,000 by the end of 2023. This surge reflects heightened developer activity and innovation in AI tools and platforms.
Decentralized AI Emergence: Decentralized AI ecosystems, led by players like Bittensor and Render, achieved long-term growth, with indices reaching nearly 1,000% gains before stabilizing. Despite challenges like volatility and infrastructure overemphasis, these ecosystems offer transformative potential through tokenized AI and equitable resource distribution.
Revenue and Market Leadership: Microsoft Azure ($3.9B ARR) and OpenAI ($3.4B ARR, 113% growth) lead the commercial AI market, while NVIDIA’s stock grew 2,653.7% over five years as the backbone of AI hardware. ChatGPT’s popularity drove 2.6B website visits, showcasing the mainstream adoption of generative AI platforms.
Key Names: GPT-4, NVIDIA, Microsoft, OpenAI, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, CoreWeave, Anthropic, Stability AI, ChatGPT, Render, Akash, Bittensor, Jasper, GitHub Copilot, Mistral, RunwayML, Claude, OriginTrail, Story, Modulus Labs.
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