Those who’ve lived with many wildfires over the years knows there is so much homeowners (and community leaders) can do to reduce the effect of wildfires, and control them. Reducing fuel, and ensuring water sources, controlled burns are common in heavily-wooded, mountain areas. These types of mitigation and planning are key, and can also greatly buy time so people & pets can safely get out.
Communities can also plan their infrastructure to ensure roads to exit are sufficient, and control how many homes are built in heavily wooded areas.
I’m pointing this out because there are so many things that can be done in the short-term, regardless of how quickly or not climate change affects Americans.
I lived for a long time in a heavily-wooded area, with woods all around me. So, I’m a little shocked that the conversation for fire mitigation and planning is almost never being discussed when climate change is discussed? Don’t climate change experts want to see Americans succeed/survive? Or, are they only interested in pushing their point for climate legislation?
"It’s not quite clear how the insurance world in California will get to $50B, if that is the number on the other side of this disaster."
The gap between [$60B Economic Losses] - ($10B Private Insurance + ~$3B FAIR Scheme w/Re-Insurance) is NOT "insurance world" or insured loss whatsoever.
1. F.A.I.R. may be on the hook for $22B ($25B exposure - $3B cash+reinsurance), which perhaps gets passed to CA tax payers??
2. But the rest is Economic Loss...
3. FAIR (and private insurance) probably has really "fun" 20% sort of deductibles and covering X% of rebuilding $Y valued box. Where Y/ZillowEstimate is perhaps ~50-75%?
___________________________
"The Cure for Catastrophe" is a fascinating book on the topic of "human-MADE" disasters... all the stakeholders, dynamics, and incentives. For example, prevention dollars are 7-15x more effective than relief, BUT Politicians that hand out relief get a huge political capital ROI vs spending $$$ on disasters that wouldn't "manifest" if they're in fact prevented...
...BUT if the "levee" doesn't break on 1-in-50 years event, then MORE people PRETEND it's safe to live in a said area, MOVE IN, BUILD HOUSES, BID UP PROPERTY VALUES and TAXES... creating a GREATER eventual 1-in-75yr disaster. Amplified by Inflation and Leverage of course.
...hurricane Andrew also reset wind prices. 1987 reset puts (funny enough after a wind-storm hit UK financial markets the friday before!). Katrina can't undo the geological plate slip'n'slide with or without insurance. And the "Great Mississippi Flood of 1927" was when even the Insurance industry had to wake up to reality of water damage. (But you may notice it's being repackaged into/as Business Interruption $$$$$$).
"An early estimate of property damage was $10 million.[26] However, later it was estimated that approximately one-quarter of the taxable real estate in the state of California was destroyed in the flood.[41] The state almost had to declare bankruptcy due to the costs of the damage and the loss of tax revenue.[5]"
Arson used to be quite the thing during earthquakes, too. For insurance reasons wrt eq insurance and property tax dynamics of those times.
Maybe we can be optimistic that there will be stimulative growth in the region, hopefully rebuilt smarter and of more use to more people... And all without usual WAR dynamics. But yeah, "too soon" for the human side of this tragedy.
Those who’ve lived with many wildfires over the years knows there is so much homeowners (and community leaders) can do to reduce the effect of wildfires, and control them. Reducing fuel, and ensuring water sources, controlled burns are common in heavily-wooded, mountain areas. These types of mitigation and planning are key, and can also greatly buy time so people & pets can safely get out.
Communities can also plan their infrastructure to ensure roads to exit are sufficient, and control how many homes are built in heavily wooded areas.
I’m pointing this out because there are so many things that can be done in the short-term, regardless of how quickly or not climate change affects Americans.
I lived for a long time in a heavily-wooded area, with woods all around me. So, I’m a little shocked that the conversation for fire mitigation and planning is almost never being discussed when climate change is discussed? Don’t climate change experts want to see Americans succeed/survive? Or, are they only interested in pushing their point for climate legislation?
https://climatecheck.com/risks/fire/mitigation-guide-for-homeowners
It was a wake up call to see some houses completely untouched based on their construction methods.
Thank you for sharing this link. Prevention is always better than reconstruction.
"It’s not quite clear how the insurance world in California will get to $50B, if that is the number on the other side of this disaster."
The gap between [$60B Economic Losses] - ($10B Private Insurance + ~$3B FAIR Scheme w/Re-Insurance) is NOT "insurance world" or insured loss whatsoever.
1. F.A.I.R. may be on the hook for $22B ($25B exposure - $3B cash+reinsurance), which perhaps gets passed to CA tax payers??
2. But the rest is Economic Loss...
3. FAIR (and private insurance) probably has really "fun" 20% sort of deductibles and covering X% of rebuilding $Y valued box. Where Y/ZillowEstimate is perhaps ~50-75%?
___________________________
"The Cure for Catastrophe" is a fascinating book on the topic of "human-MADE" disasters... all the stakeholders, dynamics, and incentives. For example, prevention dollars are 7-15x more effective than relief, BUT Politicians that hand out relief get a huge political capital ROI vs spending $$$ on disasters that wouldn't "manifest" if they're in fact prevented...
...BUT if the "levee" doesn't break on 1-in-50 years event, then MORE people PRETEND it's safe to live in a said area, MOVE IN, BUILD HOUSES, BID UP PROPERTY VALUES and TAXES... creating a GREATER eventual 1-in-75yr disaster. Amplified by Inflation and Leverage of course.
...hurricane Andrew also reset wind prices. 1987 reset puts (funny enough after a wind-storm hit UK financial markets the friday before!). Katrina can't undo the geological plate slip'n'slide with or without insurance. And the "Great Mississippi Flood of 1927" was when even the Insurance industry had to wake up to reality of water damage. (But you may notice it's being repackaged into/as Business Interruption $$$$$$).
https://infinity.wecabrio.com/465060943-the-cure-for-catastrophe-how-we-can-stop-manufactu.pdf
It is looking even worse now -- $100B+ in losses.
Human condition is a damn tragedy!
1862 flood:
"An early estimate of property damage was $10 million.[26] However, later it was estimated that approximately one-quarter of the taxable real estate in the state of California was destroyed in the flood.[41] The state almost had to declare bankruptcy due to the costs of the damage and the loss of tax revenue.[5]"
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862
Simulated visualization of 1862 flood:
https://www.popsci.com/ARkStorm-megastorm-california/
Actual map of Mississippi flood 1927, which finally made flooding uninsurable.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Mississippi_Flood_of_1927#/media/File%3A1927_LA_Flood_Map.jpg
Arson used to be quite the thing during earthquakes, too. For insurance reasons wrt eq insurance and property tax dynamics of those times.
Maybe we can be optimistic that there will be stimulative growth in the region, hopefully rebuilt smarter and of more use to more people... And all without usual WAR dynamics. But yeah, "too soon" for the human side of this tragedy.