Hi Fintech futurists --
This week, we look at:
$50 billion of transaction volume for Ethereum-based stablecoins in June
How Ponzi schemes are consuming 30%+ of Ethereum's transaction capacity
The history of MMM and its Soviet arch villain, from the 1990s to now
Let's root out the pyramid scheme weed while we can.
We have a beautiful Ethereum garden. In it, we grow cash equivalents called stablecoins powering applications that run on open source programmable blockchains. It promises to be the new economy -- free, permissionless, and global. Over $50 billion of transaction volume was spent in June 2020 alone.
But there is a hungry weed growing underneath.
In our beautiful public garden, there spreads a corruption. Can we root out this plant? Can we turn the soil?
The weed is called a pyramid scheme, and it always takes advantage of those who feed it. Take a look at the diagram below. After 4 levels of targets, the scheme needs just 7,000 people to be profitable to the swindlers. After the 10th level, it needs 60 million people. By the 13th level, you must consume 13 billion participants. There is never enough for the weed.
The weed can work on any technology, as long as it touches a human mind. You can spread it with words, on paper, by fax, or in code. Here is how the weed looks like when it's implemented in software: this academic paper traces a number of software implementations of pyramid schemes up to January 2020. By then, there already were 184 different ponzi schemes operating on permisionless networks. There are more now.
Maybe you don't understand how bad this is for the garden. Maybe you think that letting this grow and overtake our mutual work is freedom. The strongest survive, the weakest die.
With that mindset, we would have no delicate flowers or cultivated beauty. All we would have is a desert of dandelions and horseradish.
In the world of money and crypto currency, there would be no real economic activity, no central bank digital currency, no crypto-native businesses, no new financial infrastructure, and no technology platform shifts to blockchain. Just a loud grind of *theft* guzzling gas fees, crowding out productive activity from Ethereum forever.
The Weed has a Name
Let me introduce you to MMM. While decentralized finance and digital asset companies bend over backwards to be customer centric and reform financial services (each in their own way), MMM is a pretender. It is a pretender that has stolen the language of the crypto economy to create a cancer in its body.
A personal aside. Growing up in the crumbling Soviet Union of the late 1980s, there is a series of TV commercials etched into my memory that I will tell you about.
You have to sympathize a little bit, and imagine a country which had no economic system, but for authoritarianism and a massive black market. As the Berlin Wall collapsed, so did the economic hallucination that was the centrally planned economy. The Chicago School of Economics group advised Gorbachev on a "shock therapy" approach to transition, leading to an unprecedented distribution of state assets (e.g., factories, buildings, natural resources) to people who could not tell the difference between a stock certificate and a stamp. Let's just say China did better with the gradual approach.
So in this context comes a series of commercials from the early 1990s. It features a Russian man, Lenya Golubkov, who "invests" his money with a "securities cooperative" called MMM. His fortunes quickly improve. He is able to buy boots, then a coat for his wife, eventually touring America with his brother, and starting a successful business. The securities he buys look like stock certificates, promising returns of 100% per month and more.
I remember watching these on television. You must understand that everything on television carried authority in those times. Like movies from the US, which hinted at a Western opulence, and the promise of new wealth associated with liberalization, MMM was sold a dream to regular people in a language they understood. I imagine in many poorer, less educated parts of the world, such storytelling still works. As does this image of a voucher for a share in a pyramid scheme.
The man behind the scheme, Sergei Mavrodi, is a cartoon villain -- dead at the age of 62 from a heart attack (who knows what that means in Russia now). He spent his life openly gaslighting regulators and politicians, briefly even becoming one to get immunity from prosecution. The people he was defrauding voted him in, but he ended up jailed eventually anyway. Seemingly a brilliant mathematician and deeply cynical, Mavrodi wrapped the popular sentiments on the ground into a misleading trap for the unwary consumer. A few examples follow excerpted below, and Quartz, Radio Free Europe, and Time.
It feels like a long time since the 1990s. But in terms of human nature, it has been barely a blink. After Mavrodi got out of jail, MMM resurfaced in 2011, made its way to the Internet, and has now implanted itself into the body of cryptocurrency. Mavrodi is dead, but his scheme is the decentralized autonomous organization that nobody wanted, living on in the code forever. Like a tapeworm, it eats 10% of Ethereum's transactions and is responsible for 50% of the transfers for stablecoin Paxos, according to CoinMetrics.
The weed is not alone -- it inspires others. Another pyramid called Forsage is eating up 25% of Ethereum's bandwidth, beating MMM at its parasitic game. Forsage is the decentralized app with the most users and volume, outperforming legitimate DeFi pioneers like Compound and Kyber Network. Other software versions of this same thing will proliferate and evolve as the smart contracts ecosystem of Ethereum matures. They prey on how easy it is to fool people and sell them a lie, and undermine the infrastructure on which they grow.
The Philippines SEC has attempted to go after the pyramid scheme, but of course to no avail. It has no reach over Lado Okhotnikov, the developer of the code. And we are in the Pirate Bay age of money -- there is nothing to shut down, many will argue. This is permissionless.
Hard work to be done
There is hard work ahead. Instead of yield farming arbitrage, the crypto community must root out these weeds. If we ever want broad adoption, it is unrealistic to say "caveat emptor". Most people are not able to probability-weigh payoffs and parse financial products for what is real and what is false.
Think for a moment of computer viruses. Just because computes can become infected and send your data and passwords to malificent third parties, doesn't mean that is likely to happen. Various shields, defenders, and open software protect users from those seeking to troll and harm us. In the early 1990s, there were just 5,000 viruses transferred between computers. In 2020, there are now nearly a billion infections per year, across millions of websites designed to trap and mislead people.
We still use computers. We still use the Internet. It is safe to do so, because the tools to protect people have been created and are as widely available as their adversaries.
In thirty years, I hope to say that we still use Ethereum. If black hat hackers can band together to exploit well meaning decentralized finance projects for their own gain, white hat hackers should come together to protect their users against naked pyramid schemes. If we don't, there may never be real money in the system. Or worse yet, there will be no real decentralized system at all.
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